Since October last year, the price of bitcoin has increased five times. How high can bitcoin go? This is a question that all traders are thinking about.

With more and more analysts calling out ultra-high price forecasts, bitcoin's imagination for investors seems to have broken through the sky. And this week, the analysts of bitcoin at Bloomberg also made a surprising prediction: Based on the performance of bitcoin in 2017 and 2013, the price of bitcoin may rise from the current $56000 to $400000 this year.

The law of history shows that bitcoin may rise to $400000

"Our chart shows that bitcoin has grown significantly in 2013 and 2017, 15 times and 55 times, respectively If bitcoin is to reach a similar price limit in 2021, cryptocurrency could rise to close to $400000. "

There are historical rules to follow in this prediction. In May last year, bitcoin blockchain experienced a "halving" every four years, that is, the number of bitcoin block awards automatically decreased by 50% every four years. However, historical performance shows that bitcoin has witnessed amazing growth in the following 12 to 18 months after the "halving" in November 2012 and July 2016.

Historically, bitcoin halving has proved to be an important catalyst for bitcoin to enter a new bull market. According to the analysts of bitcoin, 2021, like 2013 and 2017, is the year after the "halving", and bitcoin has seen a big rise in 2013 / 2017.

He added that in December 2017, bitcoin reached its historical peak at that time, and its price was 50 times higher than the average price in October 2015, and October 2015 was the time when bitcoin's 180 day average volatility reached its historical low.

Analysts pointed out that in September 2020, bitcoin's long-term volatility index almost hit a record low again, and the average price of bitcoin in that month was about $11000. This means that bitcoin is likely to start from $11000 again and perform the same situation as it did four years ago.

Bitcoin showed strong resilience in the face of US debt selling

Since the beginning of this year, as the epidemic situation in the United States has been gradually controlled, the economy has begun to recover, and the US debt yield has soared rapidly. Some observers worry that the rapid rise in US bond yields may dilute the attractiveness of inflation hedging instruments such as gold and bitcoin and push down their prices.

However, analysts at Bloomberg expect bitcoin to remain relatively resilient in an environment of rising US bond yields. "The rise in real yields is a disadvantage for gold, but not for bitcoin, which is still in the stage of price discovery," analysts said

Bitcoin fell 20% in the last week of February, after the yield on us 10-year Treasury bonds rose to a 12-month high of more than 1.5% at the beginning of this year. But since then, bitcoin prices have remained firm, even though US bond yields have continued to rise, reaching a 14 month high of 1.77% in mid March.

The latest popular investment vehicle, the gray bitcoin trust (GBTC), has seen a big discount as more and more people expect the us to eventually approve the bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), according to the report. If bitcoin ETF can be approved by the SEC, it will undoubtedly be an important boost to further the rise of bitcoin.

(2021-4-8)